Mittagsjournal vom 7.Mai zur Lage in Libyen

Für meine deutschsprachige Leserschaft wieder etwas zur wirtschaftlichen Bildung:
Mittagsjournal Beitrag vom 7.Mai, mit einem Interview mit mir

Mittagsjournal vom 7.Mai

Morgenjournal im ORF Ö1

Ein Überraschungsanruf von Fabio Polly von der Auslandsredaktion vom ORF Radio, und schon landet man um 7.00 im Morgenjournal.
Verpasst ?
Kein Problem, die Radiothek macht es möglich:

http://oe1.orf.at/artikel/338939

Misrata Port in action

Misrata is always worth a trip. For me it is always a good indicator how the Libyan economy is doing, as it is the biggest port of Libya. And its people have always been more progressive, independent and looking forward than the rest of Libya. This time I only went to the harbor, but already on the way there I could see the big changes that have taken place in Zliten, around 30 kilometers before Misrata. Now, don´t expect any miracles, but the town looks tidy, cleaned up and organized. And this impression does not change until you get to Misrata. No piles of trash lying around and also most remainders of the fighting which took place here, have been removed.
The harbor is working normally, cranes unloading cargo and putting it on trailers. Below you can see Austrian whitewood being unloaded, most likely arriving from the Slovenian port of Kopa (no, austria does not have its own port). If you want to see Austrian white wood by yourself, just watch out for the blue paint. This is the typical branding of Austrian producers. However, recently I discovered some wood from Slovenia also being painted blue and thus pretending it was Austrian.

In one area the port is even being renovated and some docks built in addition.
Congratulations, Misrata !

Stadtporträt Tripolis - Ö1

Nach über zwei Jahren kommt der Ö1 Journalist Michael Schrott wieder nach Tripolis. Und vergleicht so was sich geändert hat. Dass er beispielsweise in der Nacht Schüsse hört, oder wie das jetzt mit der Demokratie so ist.
Ein Überblick über Geschichte, Politik, Wirtschaft und Alltag eines Landes im Neustart-Modus.
Hörenswert !
Wer es verpasst hat, kann es eine Woche lang unter

http://oe1.orf.at/artikel/333909

und

http://oe1.orf.at/konsole?show=ondemand&track_id=331424&load_day=/programm/konsole/tag/20130316 
nachhören.

Budget for Libya 2013

Of last year´s budget, nearly 10 billion Dinars (6 billion Euros) were not spent. They were given back to the Central Bank where they await further use. In the meantime 2013´s budget is just on the edge of being aproved. This would be really great news then many state owned institutions are waiting for the budget to be allocated in order to to their long awaited orders and contracts. But is it really? The events of the last two days, where "Thuars" and wounded from the Revolution stormed the General National Congress, delayed the process. During the session where the budget was about to be approved, the Congress was stormed. The GNC then decided to move to Tajura, some 20kms away from Tripoli, in order to being able to continue their session. But you know what ? The "Thuars" followed them there and stormed the session another time. The next day they moved to another area (Krimea), where the session was also not friction free.
Lets hope for a a budget within the next few days, it would give a lot of impetus to all economic activity in the country.
Comment from a reader yesterday (thanks Tameem): The budget surplus was even 36 bn LD, which is 20 billion Euros.

Journal Panorama Do.31.1.2013

Das Interesse an der Studentenkonferenz der diplomatischen Akademie war gross: Der Festsaal war bis auf den letzten Paltz gefüllt, im Panel an dem auch ich Teilnahme, mangelte es an Sesseln. Daran war sicherlich der MENA Experte Prof.Udo Steinbach "schuld".
Letzterer wiederholte seine These, dass es zu früh sei die Auswirkungen der Revolution abzuschätzen und es noch Jahre andauern würde bevor Stabilität in die Region komme. Es sei eben "Work in Progress".
Marek Cejka (auf dem Foto links) gab einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Gruppierungen der Islamisten im arabischen Frühling.

Wen das ganze Thema "Arabischer Frühling" und die Ergebnisse der Studentenkonferenz mehr interessiert, dem empfehle ich morgiges Journal Panorama:

Journal Panorama:

Folgt Winter auf den Frühling?
Der steinige Weg zur Demokratie in der arabischen Welt
Gestaltung: Ulla Ebner

http://oe1.orf.at/programm/327219

Und jetzt die schlechte Nachricht:
Ich komme im Journal Panorama auch vor....

From the Arab Spring to Democracy, 25.1.2013, Wien

Wie hat es ein netter Kollege aus einem Nachbarland so schön formuliert:
"Da erhalte ich eine Einladung zu einer tollen Veranstaltung in Wien, organisiert von der Diplomatischen Akademie, und dann sehe ich, dass Du dort vortragen wirst."
Naja, man kann eben nicht alles haben. Aber am 25.1. könnte man viel zum Thema arabischer Frühling hören.
Beispielsweise Udo Steinbach, renommierter Kenner und Analyst des politischen Islams, oder Gudrun Harrer (nein, sie muss ich jetzt nicht weiter vorstellen oder ?), Michael Reinprecht, Leiter von Euromed in Brüssel, Aloisia Wörgetter, Botschafterin in Algerien, Arno Dettlinger, alter Libyen Haudegen der OMV und, und, und....
... ja und eben ich. Was soll ich sagen: Kommen Sie und hören Sie was all die Experten zu sagen haben. Jetzt könnten Sie sagen: Na wenn der Bachmann dort ist, müsste er uns etwas zahlen, damit wir kommen. Ich gebe Ihnen Recht.
Und deshalb erhalten diejenigen die dieser Meinung sind und dennoch nicht zurückschrecken zur Veranstaltung zu kommen 1/16 (denn es sind 16 Vortragende) der ermässigten Eintrittskarte von mir zurück (um Missverständnisse zu vermeiden: macht 0,5 EUR).
Also, viel Spass dann, vielleicht sehe ich einige ja am 25.Januar!

The Future Development in Libya

Just in time for a Christmas gift, Colonel Pusztai makes his analysis on the future development of Libya available to everybody interested.
Above you just see one slide (the one on economy), the full presentation also covers all different kinds of risks.
It that can be downloaded with the link below.
 
Presentation Col.Pusztai

Presentation and discussion at "Kremser Nahost Forum"

For the Libyans in Austria among you, my dear readers, meaning those who have a Libyan way of live and decide on a rather short notice how the daily schedule looks like, there might be something in for you today:
Tomorrow at 5 PM there will be a "Kremser Nahost Forum" lecture and discussion on Libya "Libya, the richest economy in Africa in transformation"
Details to be found on:
http://www.nahost-forum.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=9&Itemid=12

Foreign companies in Libya in state of shock ?

Foreign companies are very sensitive when it comes to shootings, bombs and especially attacks or happenings in relation with their diplomatic representations. The recent events in Benghazi left many in mayhem and fear. As one person on Twitter wrote it
"Embassies are the last safe haven, a last retreat. If they are attacked, foreigners don't feel safe anymore"
As the protests continued in the Arab world, some companies decided to pull the safety strap and take a short leave back to their homebase, or are thinking of taking their staff temporarily out of Libya. No one who has been in Libya over the last year has decided to leave for good. But a temporarily break, or a long, or not so long, scheduled meeting of all their Libya staff in their home base is a solution some are taking. And US american companies: I think most of them have taken their staff out (anyhow, there were not so many who came back so far).
One person pointed out: "It doesn´t matter so much if foreign companies stay or leave, anyhow they did not have any contracts / work to do."
For most companes this applies, but dont forget that some companies are working already in the elctricity sector (without them, there would not be 2 hrs power cut a day, but 24hrs) and not to forget the oil sector.
In the short run: true, no problem - oil keeps flowing. But over the next few months or even years, production will drop sharply if service in the oil fields can not be done and no new fields can be explored. This is actualy the status for most exploring companies since 1 1/2 years.
Then, fewer income will be generated and the country might slip into chaos.
Already, not so many companies are "flocking" into Libya. And each and every incident leads to a darker picture of the security environment.
I keep a diary, and hardly any day passes without some minor or majour happening. For businesses to return, this must change.
New laws, such as the limitation of foreign ownership to 49% do not encourage companies either.
And of course, the Libyan government must be willing to let foreign companies come to Libya, hence awarding them contracts.
Now a new, elected government is in place. Businesses have the hope that they use their legitimacy to give them a basis for a return.

Serie: erfolgreiche Manager in Libyen

Da schau einmal einer an. Ich dachte schon er sei verschollen, hat Firma gewechselt, ist in Pension gegangen, sich in einem Bunker in Sirte verschanzt, oder hat ein Burnout. Aber nein, Traugott Spiegelhalter ist nach wie vor der aktive Niederlassungsleiter der deutschen Bilfinger und Berger in Libyen. Und wie der Phönix aus der Asche tauchte er gestern bei einem gemütlichen Zusammensein der österreichisch-deutschen Gemeinschaft auf.
Und erfreute sich eines - alkoholfreien - Paulaner Weissbiers.
Er hat gut lachen, denn laut eigenen Aussagen läuft das Geschäft ausgezeichnet. Es kommt mehr Geld in die Kassen als der Laden in Libyen kostet. Was will man mehr ?
Wieso können österreichische Firmen nicht lauter Spiegelhalters einstellen. Oder eigentlich alle anderen ausländischen Baufirmen ? Denn dort ist Warten angesagt.
Geduld.
Momentan tut sich relativ wenig. Oder müsste man sagen: Nichts? Alles wartet gespannt auf die Wahlen (zur Erinnerung: 19.Juni) und hofft, dass danach ernsthaft über die Fortführung von Aufträgen verhandelt wird.

OMV back to pre-revolution production

OMV is getting back on track, thanks to Libya. It took me some time to understand the article from the Austrian Broadcasting Service,  http://www.orf.at/stories/2116895/ so lets sumarise it:

OMV produced 299.000 barrel oil per day during the period 1-3 2012, after producing 304.000 barrel per day during the same period 2011. However, nothing is indicated about the exact production in Libya, just the info that 10% of all production comes from Libya.
So I guess the blue globe (see photo) will soon start getting bigger (eventually it has become bigger already, as the photo was taken some weeks ago...). Meanwhile, OMV staff  is quite present in Libya and produces together with its main foreign partner Repsol (Spanish) and local oil companies Libyan oil.
From other press releases it is known that OMV has reached nearly pre-revolution production in Libya.

Within the Austrian community OMV is also well known in Tripoli for having one of the strictest security regulations among foreign companies: No chilling out in one of the many bars and nightclubs in Tripoli, no shopping after sunset on Ghargharesh road (which is locally also referred to as "Rodeo Drive of Tripoli") and no possibility of getting in contact with one of the many other temptations Tripoli can offer.
Work as work can. And of course: Sport - they all have a very tight training program, their compound offers excellent facilities.
It is nice to be a purist.

Bangladeshis invading Libya after sabbatical year

Finally, Asian workers, also so called TCNs (third country nationals) getting in larger numbers back to Libya. In this specific case about hundred workers from Bangladesh were spotted in Istanbul, boarding their plane to Tripoli. Of course they were all "revolution" branded, wearing baseball caps with the new flag, but in principle they just took a sabbatical year off in their home country.
The whole subject with TCNs is not unproblematic: Should Libya allow again thousands, yes, millions of foreign workers to enter the country? And thus impeding international contractors to hire Libyan workers? Many Libyans are imposing the idea of opening the borders again. However, in the short run, they will have no other choice: Electricians, welders, macons, whatever profession you look for, there is a shortage of trained people in Libya. Vocational schools do exist in large numbers, but most of them are useless.
If reconstruction is to start fast, there is no other way than letting companies hire the TCNs again. In the long run, politicians have found out that only education can be the key to success and higher employment rates of the Libyan workforce. At the moment 30-50% of the under 30y old are without work.

Nordafrika - quo vadis

Ist da tatsächlich über eine Woche seit dem letzten Blogeintrag vergangen ?
War auch eine intensive Woche in Österreich, da darf man einmal beim Blog verschnaufen. Treffen mit österreichischen Firmenvertretern, Seminare und Vorträge über Libyen und ein mehrtägiges Seminar zum Thema Führung im schönen Niederösterreich.
Also fangen wir langsam an. Das wohl meistbesuchte Ereignis war sicherlich das Nordafrika Forum in der Wirtschaftskammer Österreich. Nicht nur Libyen wurde behandelt, sondern der ganze südliche Mittelmeerstreifen.

Das Interesse der Firmen war ungebrochen, wenn auch die Geschäftsaussichten kurzfristig nicht die rosigsten sind: Unklarheit über den Fortgang der grossen Projekte, ausstehende Zahlungen und ein Bankensystem das noch nicht richtig in Schwung gekommen ist. 200 Zuhörer lauschten dem Vizepräsidenten der Wirtschaftskammer, Dr.Richard Schenz, Gästen aus Nordafrika (aus Libyen der Geschäftsführer und Eigentümer des Messeveranstalters ATEX) und meinen Kollegen aus Casablanca, Algiers und Kairo (ahc ja, ich war ja auch dabei).

Libya advancing or on hold ?

Nearly five months have passed since Tripoli fell and was taken over by forces of the NTC. Many people get impatient because they do not see things moving.
From the economic point of view quite some things have been accomplished, though: The cash crisis, going on for many weeks in November and December was resolved, the Libyan Dinar has kept its peg to the Special drawing right (SDR) and liquidity is back into the market. Basic infrastructure is not really working perfectly well, but water supply is stable, internet is getting more reliably and petrol is widely available at even lower prices than before (for my friends in Europe to get jealous: 0,08 Euro / liter).
However, electricity supply is an annoying problem since some time. Since November power cuts are frequent and in addition to not being able to work properly during the day, at night it is very cold.
Those expecting the big infrastructure projects to resume within a coupe of weeks after the declaration of liberation (23.November 2011) were taught wrong. It will definitely still take some time before they start again. And then we still don´t know which ones will start. It is obvious that restoring security and the upcoming elections are more important at the moment than building a highway.
However, in the private sector many positive signals can be seen: Many Libyans engage in trading (a handcraft they have learned over hundreds of years) and getting one or another company exporting their goods to one of the Libyan ports.
So let´s wait until the light turns green for companies to resume their work completely.

Chat auf "Der Standard", Donnerstag 12-13h

"Der Standard" Chat - ein wahres Highlight für IT und social Media interessierte.
Bereits einmal wurde mir die Ehre zuteil - pikanterweise am 1.September (an diesem Tag hätte Gadaffi 43 jähriges Regierungsjubiläum gehabt).
Zum Nachlesen unter
http://derstandard.at/1314652534831/Chat-Nachlese-David-Bachmann-Grosse-Wirtschaftsinteressen-des-Westens
Damals war ich noch in Wien stationiert, nun, nach 3 Monaten in Tripolis gibt es ein Update.
Das Chattool und die Verbindung wurde letzte Woche getestet - alles einwandfrei.
Also, wer morgen um 12h (MEZ) noch schnell vor dem Mittagessen ein wenig mit Tripolis Chaten will, der steigt ein !
Gechattet wird über die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und die Zukunft in Libyen !
Link zum Chat:
http://derstandard.at/1325485735867/Donnerstag-12-bis-13-Uhr-Chat-mit-David-Bachmann-Wirtschaftsdelegierter-in-Libyen